Some polysilicon manufacturers slightly reduced prices for shipments, and the glass supply side began to cut production [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM June 16:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last week, silicon metal futures prices consolidated sideways, while spot prices remained stable. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 8,000-8,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 8,400-8,600 yuan/mt. In July, there will be supply pressure on silicon metal. Downstream users are cautious about prices, and procurement is mostly on a need-by-need basis.

Production

On the supply side, silicon metal production continued to increase. On the one hand, large plants in Xinjiang increased production at a relatively fast pace. On the other hand, silicon enterprises in south-west China gradually resumed production in small quantities, driving up silicon metal production. It is expected that the supply-demand balance will shift towards a looser situation in July.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 559,000 mt on June 19, a decrease of 13,000 mt WoW. Among them, social general warehouses held 131,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, and social delivery warehouses held 428,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), a decrease of 11,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

At the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 34-36 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 34 yuan/kg. Last week, polysilicon prices weakened slightly, with some manufacturers offering slightly lower prices. Polysilicon is facing significant inventory and production schedule pressures.

Production

Polysilicon production in June is expected to be around 100,000 mt. In July, there is mixed performance across multiple bases, with leading manufacturers also observing each other. The probability of an overall increase in polysilicon production in the future is high.

Inventory

Currently, polysilicon inventory remains under significant pressure, with the total inventory in the polysilicon market still exceeding three months.

Module

Prices

The average price of modules has slightly decreased. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects are 0.653-0.662 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules, they are 0.668-0.677 yuan/W. Currently, centralized shipments are mainly based on existing orders. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in distributed projects are 0.679-0.696 yuan/W, for N-type 210mm modules, they are 0.684-0.701 yuan/W, and for N-type 210R modules, they are 0.71-0.715 yuan/W. The above prices are inclusive of tax and transportation, with an average freight cost of 0.02 yuan/W.

Production

Recently, industry self-discipline meetings have guided enterprises to cut production and strictly enforce self-discipline penalties. Currently, the production schedules for module manufacturers in July are gradually being released. Leading manufacturers have slightly reduced their production schedules, while small and medium-sized manufacturers have implemented more significant production cuts, mainly due to fewer orders.

Inventory

Modules are currently in an inventory buildup cycle, with 183mm modules having higher inventory levels than 210N and 210R modules.

High-purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the domestic prices for inner-layer sand are 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand are 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand are 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt. This week, the prices of high-purity quartz sand have remained largely stable. However, domestic demand remains low, and the next batch of imported high-purity quartz sand is expected to be shipped soon, resulting in relatively sufficient market supply. The planned production of wafers in Q3 is still limited, and it is anticipated that prices will drop slightly in the future.

Production

Recently, there has been a slight increase in the import of quartz ore from overseas, with overseas restrictions easing somewhat. Domestic supply has increased slightly compared to the previous period.

Inventory

Currently, there is still nearly a four-month supply of imported sand in inventory. Although the operating rates of leading domestic enterprises are low, the market supply remains abundant, and inventory levels are expected to rise.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18.5-19.5 yuan/m², with prices falling.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², with prices falling.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11-11.6 yuan/m², with prices falling. Some module enterprises have negotiated prices close to 10.5 yuan/m².

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 12-12.6 yuan/m², with prices falling.

Production

Recently, the number of blocked kilns in China has increased, and some kilns are planned to start cold repairs in the future, marking the beginning of a reduction in glass production.

Inventory

This week, domestic module enterprises are planning to start purchasing, and it is expected that the inventory levels in the glass industry will decline slightly.